BPN & Statscope India Exit Poll Projects NDA Ahead in Assam With 91-99 Seats
The BPN & Statscope India Exit Poll for the 2026 Assam Assembly election projects the NDA firmly in the lead, with the alliance expected to win between 91 and 99 seats in the 126-member House. The ASOM bloc is projected in the 23 to 30 seat range, while Others are expected to remain limited to between 4 and 5 seats. The numbers suggest that the NDA remains comfortably above the majority mark even at the lower end of the projection, pointing to a strong advantage heading into the final result count.
The projection is built around a base scenario that places the NDA at 91 seats, ASOM at 30, and Others at 5. A possible vote swing of up to 5% in favour of the NDA pushes that tally further upward, creating a broader projected range of 91 to 99 for the ruling bloc. In political terms, this means that even if the opposition performs better in select pockets, the overall statewide advantage still appears to remain with the NDA.
BJP Remains The Main Driver Of The NDA Tally
Within the NDA, the BJP is projected to remain the dominant force, with a seat range of 72 to 79. The AGP is projected to win between 11 and 13 seats, while the BPF is placed in the 8 to 9 seat range. These numbers indicate that the NDA’s strength is not resting on one party alone, but on a wider alliance structure that continues to retain regional relevance in multiple parts of the state.
The BJP’s projected range shows that the party is likely to continue as the central pole of Assam politics. Even at the lower end, it remains by far the single largest party in the state. At the upper end, it would be approaching a level of dominance that could make the final result look less like a close contest and more like a reaffirmation of its statewide organisational advantage.
Congress-Led ASOM Bloc Faces A Narrower Ceiling
The ASOM bloc is projected to finish in the 23 to 30 seat range, with the Congress expected to win between 20 and 26 seats. Raijor Dal is projected at 2 to 3 seats, while AJP is placed between 0 and 1. These figures show that while the opposition may retain influence in important constituencies, its ceiling appears limited in comparison to the NDA’s much broader spread across regions.
For the Congress, the projection suggests that it remains the principal opposition force but has not yet converted that status into a statewide comeback. A range of 20 to 26 seats keeps it relevant, but still well short of the scale needed to seriously challenge for power. The narrower band also indicates that the ASOM bloc may hold ground in selected belts without breaking through strongly enough across Assam as a whole.
Others Likely To Stay Confined To Limited Pockets
The Others category is projected between 4 and 5 seats. Within this, AIUDF is estimated at 2 to 3 seats and UPPL at 1 to 2 seats. This suggests that smaller parties may still retain influence in specific local pockets, but their overall footprint is unlikely to reshape the wider outcome unless there is a much sharper localised upset than currently projected.
The limited range for Others also shows that this election, as of now, is still being driven mainly by the larger alliance battle. Smaller parties may matter in constituency-specific contests, but the overall state picture remains heavily tilted toward the NDA versus the Congress-led opposition space.
What The Numbers Mean For Assam
The most important takeaway from the BPN & Statscope India Exit Poll is that the NDA remains the clear favourite. A projected range of 91 to 99 seats is not a marginal lead. It places the alliance in a zone of relative comfort. The opposition still has a visible presence in the numbers, but its projected best-case outcome does not yet suggest a statewide surge strong enough to overturn the broader balance.
If these trends hold on counting day, Assam may be heading toward another NDA-led government with the BJP again at the centre of power. The real contest may then shift from who forms the government to how large the NDA victory margin finally turns out to be.
Party-wise range:
BJP: 72-79
AGP: 11-13
BPF: 8-9
INC: 20-26
RD: 2-3
AJP: 0-1
AIUDF: 2-3
UPPL: 1-2
Bloc-wise range:
NDA: 91-99
ASOM: 23-30
OTHERS: 4-5
