IMD Downgrades 2026 Monsoon Forecast
India is facing the risk of a weak monsoon season after the India Meteorological Department downgraded its rainfall forecast for 2026. The latest outlook projects southwest monsoon rainfall at around 90% of the long-period average, raising concerns over agriculture, food prices and water availability.
IMD Monsoon Forecast Downgraded
The IMD has revised its earlier monsoon estimate downward, indicating that rainfall during the June-September season is likely to remain below normal. The forecast also points to a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, which could make 2026 one of the weakest monsoon years in more than a decade.
The long-period average rainfall for the southwest monsoon is based on historical rainfall data across the country. A forecast of 90% of this average places the season in the below-normal category, with the risk of larger shortfalls if rainfall distribution remains uneven.
El Nino Raises Rainfall Concerns
The weak forecast is linked to developing El Nino conditions, which often disturb India’s monsoon pattern. El Nino years are generally associated with reduced rainfall, higher temperatures and patchy distribution across key agricultural regions.
The IMD outlook suggests that most parts of India may receive below-normal rainfall, while the northeast may perform relatively better. Uneven rainfall could create additional pressure on reservoirs, groundwater levels and crop planning.
Weak Monsoon May Hit Agriculture
A deficient monsoon could affect kharif sowing, rural income and food inflation. Crops such as rice, pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals depend heavily on timely and well-distributed rainfall.
A weaker monsoon may also increase irrigation demand and raise concerns for states already facing water stress. Policymakers are expected to closely track rainfall progress, reservoir levels and crop sowing patterns in the coming weeks.
