West Bengal Exit Poll 2026: BPN and Statscope India Project BJP Ahead of AITC
The BPN and Statscope India Exit Poll for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election projects a clear advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party, with the ruling All India Trinamool Congress facing a serious challenge across a large part of the state. Based on the current projection range, the BJP is estimated to win between 165 and 185 seats in the 294-member Assembly, while AITC is projected in the 99 to 118 range. The Indian National Congress is expected to remain in single digits or low double digits, while the CPI(M) is projected to have only a marginal presence.
If these numbers hold, West Bengal could be heading for its biggest political change in more than a decade. The projected BJP range is comfortably above the halfway mark of 148 seats, placing the party in a strong position to form the government on its own. For AITC, the projection points to a substantial slide from its past dominance, though the party is still expected to retain pockets of strength in several parts of the state.
The biggest message from this projection is that the contest is no longer shaped only by statewide vote share, but by how efficiently that support is getting converted into seats. In many elections, a fragmented opposition can allow a dominant regional party to outperform its raw vote share. This time, however, the numbers suggest the anti-AITC vote may be consolidating more sharply in favour of the BJP, leading to a much wider seat gain than a simple vote swing might indicate on paper.
Congress and the Left appear unlikely to emerge as major players in seat terms, even if they remain relevant in certain local pockets. Their projected tally suggests that the main battle is now firmly bipolar, with BJP on one side and AITC on the other. That shift in the structure of the contest is one of the most important takeaways from this exit poll.
For AITC, the challenge is not just anti-incumbency, but also the possibility that voters looking for a change are rallying behind one principal challenger rather than dispersing across multiple opposition parties. For BJP, the projection indicates that the party has moved beyond being only a parliamentary force in Bengal and is now positioned as a serious Assembly-level alternative.
While seat ranges always carry a margin of uncertainty, the broad direction of this exit poll is unambiguous. As things stand, BPN and Statscope India project that the BJP has the edge in West Bengal, with the possibility of crossing well into majority territory if polling day trends translate into final counting day numbers.
Seat Projection
Party Projected Seats
BJP 165-185
AITC 99-118
INC 8-11
CPI(M) 0-2
Majority Mark: 148
