Hormuz Closure Could Push UK Into Recession
The UK economy could fall into recession in 2027 if disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues into next year, according to economic forecasts published by EY.
Hormuz Closure Could Trigger UK Recession
Under EY’s prolonged-disruption scenario, the British economy would grow by only 0.5% in 2026 before contracting by 0.2% in 2027. The projection assumes the strategic waterway remains effectively closed until early or mid-2027.
EY UK chief economist Peter Arnold said an extended closure would increase inflationary pressure and could push the economy into contraction. However, the forecast represents a risk scenario rather than a prediction that a recession is certain.
The Strait of Hormuz is a major transit route for global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Continued restrictions would keep energy and transportation costs elevated, affecting British households and businesses.
Energy Prices Threaten UK Growth
A prolonged disruption could drive UK inflation to 6.4% by the end of 2026 as higher wholesale energy prices spread across fuel, electricity, food and other goods.
Rising living costs would weaken household purchasing power and restrict consumer spending. Businesses could also face higher operating expenses, weaker demand and increased borrowing costs if persistent inflation prevents the Bank of England from reducing interest rates.
EY expects the Bank Rate to remain at 3.75% throughout 2026 under its current assessment, with possible reductions delayed until 2027.
September Reopening Improves Economic Outlook
The outlook would improve if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by September 2026. Under that scenario, EY estimates UK growth could reach 0.9% this year, compared with its central forecast of 0.8%.
Economic growth could then accelerate to 1.2% in 2027, allowing Britain to avoid a deeper downturn. The difference between the scenarios highlights the UK economy’s exposure to international energy supplies and developments in the Middle East conflict.
