Goldman Warns Brent Could Cross $120
Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent crude could rise above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026 if disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continue. However, the investment bank stressed that this is an upside-risk scenario rather than its central forecast.
Brent Crude Could Cross $120
Goldman Sachs analysts said escalating conflict in West Asia and restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had renewed pressure on global energy markets. Estimated Persian Gulf oil flows have reportedly fallen below 45% of levels recorded before the conflict.
Continued disruption could reduce available supplies, force regional producers to cut output and drive Brent crude above $120 a barrel. Prices have already risen sharply as attacks on vessels and regional infrastructure increase uncertainty over energy shipments.
Goldman Sachs Oil Price Forecast
The bank’s base forecast assumes that regional tensions will ease and oil supplies will gradually recover. Under this scenario, Goldman expects Brent crude to average about $80 a barrel during the fourth quarter of 2026 and $75 in 2027.
Brent recently moved above $91 a barrel as fresh US-Iran attacks and threats affecting maritime routes unsettled traders. Price movements are expected to remain sensitive to developments around Hormuz and other important shipping corridors.
Strait of Hormuz Supply Risks
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy routes, connecting Persian Gulf producers with international markets. Prolonged restrictions could affect crude oil and liquefied natural gas deliveries, particularly to major Asian importers.
Higher oil prices could increase transportation and manufacturing costs, contribute to inflation and place pressure on the currencies and trade balances of oil-importing countries. Alternative pipelines and strategic reserves may limit some disruption, but they cannot immediately replace the strait’s full shipping capacity.
