Super El Niño Could Cause 451,000 Heat Deaths
Extreme heat linked to the developing “Super El Niño” could contribute to around 451,000 excess deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027, according to new climate-health modelling. Researchers warn that the toll could rise further if the powerful El Niño persists into the Northern Hemisphere summer.
Super El Niño Could Drive 44% More Extreme Heat Days
The study projects global land temperatures will average around 1.2°C above normal in the coming months, with the number of extremely hot days increasing by approximately 44% compared with a normal year.
The 451,000 figure is a modelled estimate of additional heat-related mortality rather than a confirmed future death toll. It does not include deaths potentially associated with other El Niño impacts such as droughts, floods, wildfires or food insecurity.
Nigeria, Indonesia and India Face Major Heat Risks
Nigeria is projected to record the highest additional heat-related mortality over the six-month period at around 31,400 deaths, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with roughly 17,500.
Across Africa’s Sahel region, the study estimates about 66,800 additional deaths. The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could collectively see another 19,400.
India is projected to experience approximately 15,800 additional heat-related deaths during the period, with the risk potentially increasing if El Niño continues into India’s hotter summer months.
Researchers Call for Immediate Heat Protection Measures
Researchers said targeted measures including heat-warning systems, cooling centres and protections for outdoor workers could reduce mortality in the most vulnerable regions.
The current El Niño is expected to produce temperatures resembling conditions that climate change could make increasingly common within about two decades, highlighting the growing importance of long-term adaptation and heat-resilience planning.
