IMD Forecasts Below-Normal August Rainfall
India is expected to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall in August as El Niño conditions strengthen, according to the latest weather outlook. The forecast raises concerns for crops that depend heavily on rain during this stage of the kharif season.
India August Rainfall Forecast Below Normal
Nationwide rainfall during August is likely to remain below 94% of the Long Period Average. India’s normal August rainfall, based on the 1971–2020 average, is approximately 254.9 mm.
Cumulative rainfall for August and September is also projected to remain below 94% of the seasonal benchmark. However, the national forecast does not rule out short periods of heavy rain or above-normal rainfall in individual regions.
July ended with rainfall close to normal, helping reduce the deficit recorded during the earlier part of the monsoon season. Rainfall distribution varied considerably across states, with some regions experiencing floods while others continued to face dry conditions.
Moderate El Niño May Weaken Monsoon
Moderate El Niño conditions are expected to develop and strengthen over the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño is associated with warmer ocean temperatures and can weaken India’s southwest monsoon, although its effects are not uniform every year.
Weather systems such as low-pressure areas and monsoon depressions could still produce significant rainfall over parts of central, western, eastern and southern India. Authorities will continue monitoring ocean and atmospheric conditions throughout August.
Kharif Crops Face August Rainfall Risk
August rainfall is critical for recently planted rice, soybean, cotton, maize and pulses. Kharif sowing recovered substantially during July after falling behind normal levels in June.
A prolonged rainfall shortage could reduce soil moisture, increase irrigation demand and affect reservoir replenishment. The agricultural impact will depend largely on the timing and regional distribution of rain rather than the national total alone. concerns for kharif crops and reservoirs.
