Balen Shah – Bharat Pulse News

Nepal is living through a catastrophe of almost unimaginable proportions. More than 1,100 people have been confirmed dead following the Himalayan disaster of August 26, thousands remain missing, communities have been devastated, hydropower installations and bridges have been destroyed, and families across Nepal and several other countries are still desperately waiting for information about loved ones. The reconstruction bill alone could reach $4 billion to $5 billion, an extraordinary burden for a relatively small Himalayan economy. This should therefore be a moment when every arm of the Nepalese state is focused on three priorities: saving lives, helping survivors and securing as much international cooperation as possible for the enormous reconstruction challenge ahead. It should be a moment for humility, coordination and mature statecraft. Instead, a troubling pattern is beginning to emerge from Nepal’s young government — one that risks allowing political inexperience to compound an already devastating natural disaster. Prime Minister Balendra Shah and the Rastriya Swatantra Party cannot be dismissed as lacking democratic legitimacy. They won it emphatically. The RSP swept to power in March with 182 seats in Nepal’s 275-member parliament after a Gen Z-led political upheaval shattered the dominance of the established parties. Shah therefore possesses an unquestionable electoral mandate. But elections determine who has the right to govern; they do not automatically confer the experience required to manage every crisis that subsequently arrives. The handling of this catastrophe is beginning to expose that distinction. From initially rejecting foreign search-and-rescue assistance to subsequently accepting specialist international help, and now demanding climate compensation from India, China and the United States, Kathmandu appears to be moving from one position to another without sufficient appreciation of the diplomatic consequences. That is where Nepal’s opposition must stop merely watching. The country's veteran political leaders may have been decisively rejected at the ballot box, but they still possess decades of administrative, diplomatic and institutional experience. They have a responsibility to use it before political inexperience becomes diplomatic self-harm. Rejecting Help Was the First Warning Sign Two days after the disaster, when hundreds were already dead and vast numbers remained unaccounted for, Nepal said it did not require foreign search-and-rescue teams. Offers had come from countries including India, China, South Korea, the United States, Britain, Japan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Kathmandu maintained that its own resources were adequate for the task. A sovereign government is perfectly entitled to decide what foreign assistance enters its territory. There can also be legitimate security, coordination and logistical considerations when several foreign teams seek access to a sensitive disaster zone. But those considerations have to be weighed against the most important question during an emergency: could additional capabilities save lives? The subsequent course of events makes the original confidence difficult to defend. As the true dimensions of the catastrophe became clearer, Nepal began accepting specialist assistance. Indian and Chinese teams arrived, alongside experts and rescuers from several other countries. Foreign specialists have since been involved in some of the most difficult operations, particularly around devastated hydropower facilities and tunnels where workers are feared trapped. There is nothing shameful about asking for help when domestic capabilities are stretched. Quite the opposite: mature governments recognise their limitations rapidly during extraordinary emergencies. The problem is waiting until events prove the original judgement wrong. From Rejecting Assistance to Demanding Compensation Kathmandu has now moved in a dramatically different diplomatic direction. Foreign Minister Shishir Khanal has said Nepal is shifting its approach from "aid" towards "justice and compensation". He specifically identified China, the United States and India as major greenhouse-gas emitters and argued that they bear a "historical responsibility" toward vulnerable countries such as Nepal. He described compensation not as charity but as a matter of legal and moral liability. Nepal has also formally approached the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage. There are two issues here which should not be deliberately confused. Nepal has every right to approach international climate-finance mechanisms. It is a highly climate-vulnerable Himalayan country whose contribution to global emissions is comparatively small. Richer countries and major emitters should support adaptation, disaster preparedness, glacier monitoring, early-warning systems and reconstruction in vulnerable states. Nepal can make that argument forcefully. But going through a recognised international loss-and-damage mechanism is one thing. Publicly identifying India, China and the United States and suggesting that they carry a legal or moral liability for this specific catastrophe is something considerably more ambitious. Such liability cannot simply be declared into existence by a government minister. India Cannot Simply Be Handed a Bill The attempt to place India in the same rhetorical category deserves particular scrutiny. India is one of the world's largest current annual greenhouse-gas emitters. That fact is indisputable. But current annual emissions and historical responsibility are not interchangeable concepts. Global Carbon Budget data compiled by Our World in Data show that India accounts for approximately 3.57 per cent of cumulative global fossil-fuel and industrial CO2 emissions since 1751. The United States, by comparison, has emitted roughly 435 billion tonnes cumulatively, China about 285 billion tonnes and India about 66 billion tonnes through 2024. If Kathmandu wants to build its compensation argument around "historical responsibility", it therefore cannot simply take today's three largest annual emitters and treat them as though their historical contributions are equivalent. More importantly, assigning financial responsibility for one particular disaster requires something considerably stronger than establishing that climate change is making the Himalayas more dangerous. Scientists and international agencies have repeatedly warned that warming is destabilising glaciers, permafrost and mountain systems across the Hindu Kush Himalayas. That deserves urgent action. But establishing general climate vulnerability is not identical to proving that a particular country's emissions legally caused a particular avalanche, flood or loss suffered on a particular day. India cannot reasonably be expected to receive an invoice from Kathmandu merely because it is a large economy next door. Nepal Risks Antagonising a Country It Needs There is another uncomfortable reality Nepal’s government should consider before turning climate diplomacy into accusation. India offered assistance during this disaster. Indian specialists are now participating in the response. India and Nepal are not distant countries whose interactions are limited to annual diplomatic conferences. Geography has tied them together permanently. Trade, power, transport, employment, family connections, open-border movement and infrastructure bind the two countries in ways few bilateral relationships can replicate. According to Reuters' election reporting earlier this year, roughly two-thirds of Nepal's trade is conducted with India. China, meanwhile, remains another indispensable neighbour, investor and strategic partner. Nepal does not have to become submissive to either. A sovereign Nepal should absolutely defend its national interests against India, China or anyone else whenever required. Friendship between countries does not require silence when disagreements arise. But there is a profound difference between defending national interests and manufacturing unnecessary disputes. Nepal will need international help long after the television cameras leave the disaster zone. Roads must be rebuilt. Bridges must be reconstructed. Damaged electricity generation has to return. Communities need rehabilitation. Tourism must recover. Warning systems require improvement. Himalayan monitoring must become far more sophisticated. This is precisely the moment when Kathmandu should be accumulating international goodwill, not spending it recklessly. The Real Test of Nepal’s Gen Z Revolution Has Arrived The extraordinary political upheaval that brought Shah to power was driven by understandable anger. A younger generation had grown frustrated with corruption, unemployment, political instability and an establishment that appeared incapable of producing meaningful change. Shah's RSP offered something different, and voters delivered an overwhelming mandate. But replacing an unpopular political class is easier than replacing the institutional experience accumulated over decades. Protest movements can mobilise anger. Elections can transfer power. Social media can transform political communication. None of those things automatically prepares a new administration to coordinate military rescue operations, manage thousands of missing-person cases, negotiate with foreign governments, respond to international media, handle scientific uncertainty and simultaneously build a reconstruction package potentially worth a tenth of the country's economy. That is not an insult to young politicians. It is the reality of governing. The danger begins when confidence derived from electoral popularity becomes a substitute for recognising the limits of experience. Foreign Policy Is Not a Gen Z Experiment Nepal has perhaps one of the most delicate geopolitical positions of any country in South Asia. It sits between India and China, two nuclear-armed powers and geopolitical competitors. It maintains important relationships with the United States, Europe, Japan and multilateral institutions. Its economic development requires investment, tourism, remittances, infrastructure connectivity and stable access to international markets. Navigating those relationships requires discipline. A small country does not maximise sovereignty by quarrelling indiscriminately with larger countries. It maximises sovereignty by ensuring that multiple major powers see value in maintaining constructive relations with it. That has always required considerable diplomatic skill from Nepal. An inexperienced government should therefore be particularly cautious about replacing careful climate negotiations with grandstanding declarations about which foreign power supposedly owes Nepal money. Words spoken domestically do not remain domestic when foreign ministers use them. Capitals remember them. Diplomats record them. Investors notice political unpredictability. Governments reconsider assumptions about partners. One ill-considered statement will not isolate Nepal. A pattern of erratic diplomacy eventually could. Nepal’s Opposition Cannot Simply Wait for Balen to Fail This is where Nepal's traditional political establishment has an important responsibility. The Nepali Congress, the UML and other established political forces suffered a historic rejection. They should understand why. Nepal's electorate did not suddenly forget their experience; it concluded that experience alone had not delivered the governance people wanted. They therefore have no entitlement to reclaim power through the back door simply because the new government encounters difficulties. But opposition is not political retirement. Veteran politicians, former prime ministers, former foreign ministers, diplomats and administrators collectively possess institutional knowledge the new government simply cannot reproduce within a few months. During an ordinary political cycle, opposition parties are expected to challenge the government. During a disaster of this magnitude, their obligation is larger. If they believe Kathmandu is heading toward unnecessary confrontation with India, China or other partners, they should say so. If they possess diplomatic channels capable of preventing misunderstanding, they should use them. If former ministers understand how foreign rescue assistance, humanitarian coordination or multilateral reconstruction financing works, their knowledge should be available to the state. And if the government is making mistakes, the opposition should warn it before those mistakes become irreversible — not wait gleefully for failure so that it can exploit the consequences at the next election. Experience Can Help Without Overturning the Mandate There is no contradiction between respecting Shah's democratic mandate and demanding greater involvement from experienced national figures during an emergency. Nepal could establish an all-party disaster and reconstruction mechanism. Former foreign ministers and senior diplomats could be formally consulted on the international response. Parliamentary committees could provide scrutiny without obstructing operations. Scientific experts could be separated from political messaging so that climate attribution is not announced more confidently than available evidence allows. None of this requires returning the old establishment to power. It requires recognising that a nation belongs to more than whichever political party currently controls parliament. The government has the mandate. The opposition has institutional memory. The bureaucracy has administrative expertise. The security forces have operational capabilities. Scientists understand the hazards. Foreign partners possess specialist technology and resources. A competent national response should combine them. Climate Justice Does Not Require Diplomatic Recklessness Nepal should continue demanding stronger international action on Himalayan climate vulnerability. In fact, the catastrophe strengthens that case enormously. A United Nations official has warned that the Himalayan region faces growing glacial-flood risks as climate change accelerates melting and destabilisation. Nepal's vulnerability is not imagined, and developing resilience across the Himalayas should become an international priority. But climate justice does not become stronger when every disaster is instantly converted into a bilateral compensation demand. Nepal should pursue the Loss and Damage Fund. It should demand greater adaptation financing. It should seek better satellite surveillance, glacier monitoring, hydrological data and early-warning cooperation. It should pressure India and China to create stronger cross-border disaster-response mechanisms. Those are serious demands that Nepal can defend internationally. Declaring three countries responsible for compensating Nepal for the August catastrophe before the scientific and legal questions have even been resolved risks making a legitimate climate argument look like political opportunism. That helps nobody, least of all Nepal. Nepal Risks Alienating Friends When It Needs Them Most The greatest mistake Kathmandu could now make would be to confuse assertiveness with confrontation. India is not going anywhere. China is not going anywhere. Nepal cannot move away from either neighbour geographically, however governments change politically. Nor can Nepal afford to believe that international goodwill is an unlimited commodity. When foreign governments offer rescue teams after a catastrophe, rejecting them carries consequences if assistance is subsequently required. When those same countries later send specialists, equipment and relief, accusing them almost immediately of owing compensation requires extremely careful handling. The question is not whether India, China or the United States will suddenly break relations with Nepal. They will not. Diplomatic alienation generally happens more slowly. Trust erodes. Political warmth disappears. Officials become less willing to take risks for one another. Cooperation becomes transactional. Assistance becomes bureaucratic rather than instinctive. Strategic partners begin viewing a government as unpredictable. For Nepal, that would be an extraordinarily damaging outcome. Nepal Needs Statecraft Before Isolation Becomes the Legacy Balendra Shah's government has been in office for barely five months. It was elected because millions of Nepalese wanted something radically different from the political establishment that had governed them for decades. That mandate deserves respect. But the August disaster has imposed a test infinitely greater than an election campaign. The catastrophe itself is not the government's fault. The decisions made after it are entirely the government's responsibility. Nepal needs leaders capable of admitting when international assistance is necessary. It needs diplomacy that separates legitimate climate-justice demands from scientifically premature accusations of liability. It needs enough confidence to defend national interests and enough maturity to recognise which relationships should not be damaged unnecessarily. Most importantly, it needs its experienced opposition to understand that watching a government stumble during a national catastrophe is not patriotism. The old political establishment may have lost the election, but it has not lost its responsibility to Nepal. If Shah's young government lacks the experience required to navigate this extraordinary combination of humanitarian disaster, reconstruction and international diplomacy, experienced opposition leaders should advise it, challenge it and restrain it where necessary. Because Nepal can change governments at the next election. It may take considerably longer to repair relationships damaged by political inexperience. And at a moment when Nepal desperately needs friends, expertise, investment and international cooperation, turning catastrophe into isolation would be the most unnecessary disaster of all.

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