Scientists Warn of Satellite Collision Risk in Low Earth Orbit
Scientists have raised concerns over the growing risk of a major satellite collision in low Earth orbit, warning that the increasingly crowded space environment could trigger a chain reaction of crashes with serious consequences. Researchers say the rapid rise in the number of satellites and debris fragments has significantly increased the probability of collisions if preventive measures fail.
‘CRASH Clock’ Signals Heightened Danger
A recent scientific assessment introduced a tool known as the “CRASH Clock”, which estimates how soon a catastrophic collision could occur if satellites stopped actively avoiding one another. Under a worst-case scenario, where collision-avoidance manoeuvres fail or are disrupted, the model suggests a major collision could take place within a matter of days. Researchers stressed that this does not mean a crash is imminent, but highlights how strained orbital traffic management has become.
Why Low Earth Orbit Is Becoming Crowded
Low Earth orbit hosts thousands of active satellites used for communication, navigation, weather monitoring and Earth observation. In addition, millions of debris fragments from past launches, explosions and collisions are already circling the planet at extremely high speeds. Even small pieces of debris can cause severe damage when travelling at orbital velocities.
Risk of a Chain Reaction
Scientists warn that a single large collision could generate vast amounts of debris, leading to a cascading effect where new fragments increase the likelihood of further impacts. This scenario, often referred to as a collision cascade, could severely disrupt satellite services and make parts of low Earth orbit unusable for extended periods.
Need for Better Space Management
Experts emphasised that active collision-avoidance systems currently help reduce risks, but system failures, coordination gaps or extreme space weather events could overwhelm existing safeguards. They called for stronger international cooperation, improved tracking systems and stricter rules on satellite deployment to prevent a future orbital disaster.
