Retail Inflation Falls To Record 0.25 % In October
India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slid to just 0.25 % year-on-year in October 2025, marking the lowest reading since the current data series began in 2015. The figure is substantially below the Reserve Bank of India’s target range of 2 %–6 % and signals a marked easing of price pressures.
Drivers Of The Decline
The steep fall is primarily attributed to a sharp drop in food inflation, which turned negative at -5.02 % year-on-year, while vegetable prices fell by 27.57 %. A favourable base effect, alongside recent cuts in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on several mass-consumption items, also played a significant role in bringing headline inflation down to this historic low.
Implications For Monetary Policy
With inflation comfortably below the central bank’s tolerance band, speculation is mounting that the RBI may consider cutting interest rates in its December policy review. However, economists caution that the low print also reflects unique temporary factors and note that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel items, remains elevated. Close monitoring of upcoming inflation prints and transmission to credit markets will shape policy decisions.
