RBI Governor Das Predicts Inflation Moderation by Q4 Amid Global Risks
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das projected a gradual moderation in inflation from the last quarter of the ongoing financial year but cautioned against potential risks posed by escalating global geopolitical conflicts and unexpected weather events.
Speaking at an event in Mumbai organized by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), Das emphasized the evolving inflation trajectory.
“The headline inflation trajectory is expected to sequentially moderate starting from Q4 of this financial year. However, unexpected weather events and worsening geopolitical conflicts remain major risks to this outlook,” Das said.
Balancing Inflation and Growth
Addressing the ‘Macro Week 2024’ gathering, Das highlighted the balanced position between inflation and growth in India, asserting that the Indian economy reflects stability and resilience. He noted that the country’s economic strength has provided the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee with the space to prioritize inflation management, aiming for a durable descent to the 4% target.
Economic Resilience and Growth Projections
Das also reiterated the Indian economy’s robust recovery from the COVID-19-induced contraction, achieving an average real GDP growth of over 8% in the last three years. For FY25, the RBI has forecast real GDP growth of 7.2%, with risks balanced around this estimate.
He further emphasized the role of domestic demand, lower input costs, and a supportive policy environment in spurring manufacturing activity, while the services sector continues to display strong growth. Private consumption, bolstered by favorable agricultural conditions and rising rural demand, remains a key driver of economic strength, Das added.
