Pakistan Alleges 91,000 Cusecs Drop in Chenab River
Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) has claimed a sharp drop of 91,000 cusecs in Chenab River inflows from India over just two days. According to WAPDA data, inflows at the Marala Headworks plunged from 98,200 cusecs on May 29 to merely 7,200 cusecs by June 1, with zero outflow recorded.
This dramatic decline has set off alarm bells in Pakistan’s Punjab province, where the Chenab River is critical for irrigation. Canals such as the Upper Chenab and BRB (Bambawali-Ravi-Bedian) derive their lifeline from this river, irrigating thousands of acres. A sustained reduction could devastate crop cycles during the ongoing kharif season, especially as water levels in key reservoirs like Mangla and Tarbela remain critically low.
India’s Treaty Suspension Tied to Terror Attack
The sudden drop in water flows comes shortly after India suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on April 23. The suspension followed the deadly Pahalgam terror attack, in which 26 civilians were killed. India accused Pakistan-based groups of orchestrating the assault and warned of a re-evaluation of its treaty obligations.
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, allocates control over six rivers. India holds rights over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan is entitled to the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). India is allowed non-consumptive uses—such as power generation—on western rivers, but Pakistan fears this provision is now being reinterpreted for political leverage.
Pakistan Labels Water Cut-Off a Threat
In response, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif labeled India’s alleged actions as “dangerous,” warning that cutting off river flows to settle political scores could be considered an act of aggression. He added that “millions of lives are tied to these rivers,” and accused India of endangering regional peace.
Pakistan is now reportedly considering taking the matter to international legal forums such as the World Bank’s treaty oversight mechanisms and the Permanent Court of Arbitration. Officials have demanded immediate international scrutiny of what they describe as a violation of international water-sharing commitments.
Implications for Agriculture and Regional Stability
The timing of the Chenab reduction has dealt a blow to Pakistan’s kharif sowing season, with farmers now facing acute water shortages. The ripple effect may be felt in food production, rural employment, and inflation. With reservoir levels already under strain, the drop in river inflows could have long-term impacts on Pakistan’s water economy.
More broadly, the episode highlights the vulnerability of international water treaties in regions marred by geopolitical hostilities. As India rethinks its obligations in light of cross-border terrorism, and Pakistan fears weaponization of water, both nations risk dragging an environmental issue into a strategic flashpoint. The situation underscores an urgent need for de-escalation, transparent communication, and a framework to separate water-sharing from conflict diplomacy.
