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Oil Prices Surge 3% Amid Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict
Oil prices climbed more than 3% on Wednesday as tensions between Israel and Iran escalated, following Iran’s largest-ever direct attack on Israel, firing over 180 ballistic missiles. Both Israel and the United States have vowed retaliation, sparking concerns over potential disruptions in the global oil supply.
Conflict Sparks Oil Price Surge
Brent crude futures surged by $2.26, or 3.07%, reaching $75.82 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped $2.38, or 3.42%, to $72.22 per barrel as of 1320 GMT. This marks a continuation of the surge observed on Tuesday, when crude prices rose over 5% before settling around 2.5% higher.
The sharp increase in oil prices comes as Israel ordered more troops into Lebanon to combat Iran-backed Hezbollah militants, indicating a further intensification of the conflict. With no signs of de-escalation, fears of supply disruptions are pushing crude prices upward.
Potential Oil Supply Disruptions
Market analysts, including Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, warned that any Israeli and U.S. retaliation could potentially target Iran’s oil facilities, posing a serious threat to the region’s oil production and supply. Tehran has responded by cautioning that any further provocation will lead to “vast destruction.”
“Iran’s or its allies’ retaliation could strike Saudi oil facilities or see the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Any of these events would irretrievably send oil prices considerably higher,” Varga noted.
Impact on Global Oil Markets
Iran, which produces approximately 4% of global oil output, saw its production rise to a six-year high of 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in August. Any disruptions to Iran’s output could have significant ramifications on the global oil market, especially if Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members do not step in to fill the gap.
Capital Economics echoed these concerns, suggesting that a major escalation could draw the United States further into the conflict. With the risk of supply disruptions mounting, OPEC+ members, including Russia, convened to review the situation, although no immediate policy changes are expected.
OPEC+ Meeting and Future Projections
OPEC+ is scheduled to raise output by 180,000 bpd each month starting in December. However, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister warned that prices could drop to as low as $50 per barrel if OPEC+ members do not adhere to agreed-upon production limits, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
As the conflict unfolds, the global oil market remains on edge, with traders closely monitoring developments. A prolonged escalation could see oil prices surge further, while any signs of de-escalation or increased production could stabilize the market. The United Nations and European Union have called for an immediate ceasefire, but the situation remains volatile, keeping the energy markets on high alert.
