Monsoon Pauses as Dry Air Halts Progress; Revival Expected by June 18
After an unusually early onset on May 24 over Kerala, the southwest monsoon has now entered a pause phase due to a dry air incursion from western and northwestern India. The progression, which initially showed promise of a swift advance, stalled after May 29. Between June 1 and June 6, India received only 19 mm of rainfall, a figure that is 3.4% below the long-period average for this period, raising concerns about delayed agricultural activities in affected regions.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) attributed the interruption to an anti-cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea, which has blocked moisture-laden winds from moving further inland. This has not only slowed monsoon progress but also intensified pre-monsoon heat across large parts of the country.
Heatwave Conditions Grip Central India
The delay has triggered a sharp spike in temperatures, especially across central India. In Vidarbha, cities like Nagpur and Bramhapuri recorded searing highs of 43°C and 43.6°C respectively. Other districts such as Akola, Amravati, Wardha, Gondia, and Bhandara have consistently reported temperatures above 41°C, pushing heat index levels into the danger zone.
In Madhya Pradesh, dry and hot conditions have also intensified. Indore saw a high of 38.7°C on June 8, with little relief in sight until mid-June. The absence of rain has impacted not just human comfort but also the sowing calendar for farmers awaiting critical pre-monsoon showers.
IMD Predicts Monsoon Revival Soon
The IMD forecasts a revival of the monsoon between June 12 and June 18, with rainfall expected to cover central and eastern India during this window. A developing cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal may aid the monsoon’s advancement into peninsular India and beyond.
Private weather agencies have echoed similar predictions, suggesting that a change in the upper-air wind patterns will allow the monsoon to resume its northward journey. Rainfall is expected to gradually return to regions like Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh, bringing much-needed relief from the current heatwave.
Relief in Sight for Agriculture Sector
Despite the temporary setback, the overall seasonal forecast remains positive. The IMD maintains that the country is likely to experience above-normal rainfall between June and September. Farmers and agri-businesses are expected to benefit from the eventual rebound, provided the monsoon resumes in the projected time frame.
Water conservation authorities and urban planners are also closely monitoring the upcoming phase, as the delay has implications for reservoir levels and groundwater recharge, particularly in drought-prone zones.
With the pause phase nearing its end, attention is now focused on how robust and consistent the upcoming rainfall will be—both in intensity and distribution. If the revival proceeds as forecasted, it may help mitigate early monsoon stress and stabilize seasonal agricultural and water supply expectations.
