Mark Carney Says Canada Studied Risk of US Military Action

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has revealed that his government examined the possibility of US-led military action against Canada, describing such a scenario as an “extreme tail risk” rather than an expected outcome. He said governments nevertheless have a responsibility to prepare for highly unlikely but potentially severe security threats.

Canada Assessed Extreme US Military Scenario

Carney said examining such scenarios was part of responsible risk management and stressed that a US military attack was not his government’s “base case”.

The assessment comes against the backdrop of repeated remarks by US President Donald Trump about Canada potentially becoming the 51st US state. Trump previously ruled out using military force to annex Canada but said he could consider using economic pressure.

Canada Reduces Defence Dependence on US

Carney’s government has simultaneously accelerated efforts to strengthen Canada’s independent defence capabilities and reduce its reliance on the United States.

Canada has increased military spending, expanded domestic defence procurement and pursued new security partnerships. Ottawa has also been reviewing whether to proceed with its full planned purchase of American F-35 fighter jets while exploring alternative defence platforms.

US-Canada Relations Face Growing Strain

Relations between Washington and Ottawa have become increasingly difficult amid trade disputes and US tariffs on Canadian goods.

Carney has nevertheless maintained regular communication with Trump and said cooperation between the neighbouring countries remains necessary on major international and security issues.