Maldives Faces Debt Crisis as Chinese Loans Raise Default Risk
The Maldives is facing a growing debt crisis, with fears of a potential sovereign default as external borrowings, particularly from China, continue to strain the nation’s financial stability. With debt levels soaring and foreign reserves depleting, the island nation is grappling with severe economic challenges.
Rising Debt and Economic Pressure
The Maldives’ total debt has surged to $8.2 billion as of March 2024, a dramatic rise from $3 billion in 2018. Projections indicate that this figure could surpass $11 billion by 2029. External debt alone stands at $3.4 billion, with China and India among the primary creditors.
The country faces immediate financial pressure, with $600 million in external debt repayments due in 2025, followed by an even more daunting $1 billion obligation in 2026. The rapid accumulation of debt has raised concerns over the country’s ability to meet its financial commitments without external intervention.
Declining Foreign Reserves and Credit Downgrades
The Maldives’ foreign exchange reserves have been steadily declining, posing a severe challenge to its financial stability. In December 2024, the usable reserves stood at less than $65 million, an improvement from a critically low $21.97 million in July 2024. At one point in mid-August, reserves turned negative, highlighting the severity of the crisis.
Major international credit rating agencies have responded to the worsening financial situation by downgrading the Maldives’ credit ratings. Fitch Ratings has lowered the nation’s rating multiple times, while Moody’s has maintained a negative outlook, citing concerns over the government’s ability to manage its mounting debt.
China-Maldives Free Trade Agreement and Debt Burden
The China-Maldives Free Trade Agreement (FTA), implemented in early 2025, was expected to boost economic growth but has instead added to the nation’s financial struggles. Of the estimated $700 million in bilateral trade, the Maldives contributes less than 3%, while Chinese imports dominate at 97%.
Under the FTA, the Maldives eliminated tariffs on 95% of Chinese goods, leading to a significant loss in tariff revenue. This decision has further weakened government finances, limiting the state’s ability to generate revenue needed to meet debt obligations.
Infrastructure Loans and Sovereign Risks
Several major infrastructure projects, including the China-Maldives Friendship Bridge, the expansion of Velana International Airport, and housing developments, have been financed through Chinese loans. While these projects have contributed to economic growth, the rising debt associated with them has increased concerns over potential sovereignty risks.
The fear is that failure to repay loans could lead to China taking control of strategic assets, a scenario that has played out in other countries facing similar debt crises. This has sparked domestic and international concerns about the long-term implications of Chinese lending practices in the Maldives.
Government’s Response and Future Challenges
To address the financial crisis, the Maldivian government has introduced austerity measures, including cuts in public spending and subsidies. Officials are also seeking international assistance to restructure existing debt and secure alternative funding sources.
Efforts are underway to diversify the economy by promoting sustainable tourism and fisheries, sectors that could generate much-needed revenue. However, economic recovery remains uncertain, with analysts warning that without significant policy reforms, the risk of default will continue to loom over the Maldives.
As the country navigates this financial turmoil, the focus remains on balancing economic sovereignty with the need for international financial support. The Maldives’ ability to implement sustainable economic policies will be crucial in determining whether it can avoid a full-scale financial collapse in the coming years.
