India’s exports to US fall nearly 12 % as non-US markets surge
India’s merchandise exports to the United States fell 11.9 per cent year-on-year to about US $5.5 billion in September, according to rating agency CRISIL’s October report. In August, however, US-bound exports had grown around 7 per cent.
Growth in non-US markets
Shipments to non-US markets expanded 10.9 per cent in September, compared to 6.6 per cent growth in August. This rise helped offset some of the pressure from the steep fall in US-bound shipments.
Impact of US tariffs
The sharper drop in US-bound exports was cushioned by front-loading of shipments ahead of the 50 per cent additional tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration on Indian goods from 27 August 2025. Without this advance push, the decline would have been sharper.
Current account deficit outlook
CRISIL expects India’s current account deficit (CAD) to remain around 1 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal, compared with 0.6 per cent last year. Strong services exports, steady remittance inflows, and lower crude oil prices are expected to support the balance.
Global trade scenario
The World Trade Organization has projected global merchandise-trade volume growth of 2.4 per cent in 2025, compared to 2.8 per cent in 2024. Analysts highlight that India’s export diversification is crucial as US markets slow and trade barriers rise.
Sectors most affected
The sectors hit hardest by the US decline include textiles, gems and jewellery, seafood and home-textiles. At the same time, India is working to expand exports in new geographies to counterbalance reduced opportunities in the US.
