India on Track to Achieve $10 Trillion Economy Within a Decade: Finance Commission Chief
Arvind Panagariya, Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission, has expressed confidence in India’s trajectory toward becoming a $10 trillion economy within the next decade. Speaking at the 49th Civil Accounts Day celebrations in New Delhi, Panagariya highlighted India’s robust economic performance over the past two decades, noting an average annual growth rate of 10.1% in nominal terms (approximately 7.8% in real terms).
Panagariya emphasized that maintaining current growth rates could elevate India’s per capita income from the present $2,570 to approximately $14,000 by 2047, aligning with the nation’s “Viksit Bharat” vision of achieving developed nation status by its centenary of independence.
He also addressed short-term economic fluctuations, acknowledging modest estimates in the early quarters of FY25 but highlighting a significant recovery in the third quarter. Panagariya urged a focus on long-term trends rather than temporary setbacks, underscoring the resilience and upward trajectory of India’s economy.
Key factors supporting this optimistic outlook include India’s stable democratic governance, substantial catch-up potential due to relatively low per capita income, a large and youthful population contributing to a demographic dividend, and ongoing economic and governance reforms fostering a more competitive, market-oriented economy.
In a related assessment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that India will remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with an anticipated GDP growth rate of 6.5% in the fiscal year 2025-26. The IMF emphasizes the importance of comprehensive structural reforms, such as labor market improvements, human capital development, and increased female labor force participation, to sustain long-term growth.
