India Maintains 6.3–6.8% GDP Forecast Despite U.S. Tariffs
Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran reaffirmed India’s GDP growth projection for FY2025–26 at 6.3% to 6.8%, despite the U.S. imposing tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods. He pointed to the economy’s strong start, with the first quarter recording 7.8% growth, as evidence of resilience. The projection also matches the range highlighted in the Economic Survey earlier this year.
Tariff Impact Viewed as Temporary
Nageswaran said the effect of higher U.S. duties is expected to be short-term, most visible in the initial months. He stressed that India’s domestic demand—supported by festive consumption, potential GST rate cuts, and steady investment—would help offset export disruptions. Government departments and industry bodies are working to support exporters and explore diversification into new markets.
Still a Downside Risk
While the outlook remains positive, economists caution that prolonged tariffs could shave some points off growth. Analysts estimate the hit could be about 30–40 basis points if the trade conflict persists. Even so, India is expected to stay one of the fastest-growing major economies, with momentum from domestic consumption and policy measures cushioning the blow.
