India Likely to Miss $1 Trillion Export Target in FY26
India is increasingly likely to fall short of its ambitious USD 1 trillion export target for the fiscal year 2025–26, according to trade analysts. The shortfall is attributed to weak global demand, a slowdown in international trade and rising protectionist measures that have weighed on shipment growth.
Merchandise Exports Under Pressure
Merchandise export growth has been modest this year, with many product categories facing subdued orders from key global markets. Goods exports are expected to remain largely flat or only marginally higher compared to the previous year, reflecting a slowdown in demand for basic industrial and commodity exports amid broader global economic uncertainty.
Services Exports Provide Some Support
India’s services exports, including information technology and business services, continue to show resilience and account for a substantial share of total exports. However, even services exports have slowed compared with stronger growth rates seen in recent years, limiting their ability to offset weakness in goods shipments.
Trade Barriers and Market Conditions
Rising trade barriers in advanced economies and climate-linked trade measures have further complicated India’s export outlook. With protectionist policies on the rise globally and sluggish demand in large markets, analysts say external headwinds are reducing India’s export momentum and making it difficult to reach the USD 1 trillion mark by March 2026.
Strategic Response Needed
To counter the slowdown and support export growth, experts argue that India will need to focus on improving competitiveness, enhancing product quality, leveraging existing trade agreements more effectively, and diversifying into new markets. Strengthening domestic supply chains and reducing logistics costs are also seen as key to boosting export performance in the coming year.
