IMF Raises China Growth Forecast for 2026
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth forecast for China in 2026, projecting a stronger expansion than previously expected. The new forecast sees China’s economy growing by about 4.5 percent next year, up from earlier estimates, reflecting improved trade conditions and supportive domestic policies.
Growth Seen Strong After 2025
China’s economy is coming off an estimated 5 percent growth in 2025, driven by solid export performance and fiscal and monetary measures aimed at sustaining domestic demand. The IMF’s revised outlook attributes part of the improved 2026 forecast to reduced trade pressures and ongoing stimulus efforts by policymakers.
Global Economy Outlook
The IMF also signalled that the broader world economy remains relatively resilient despite geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions. Global growth for 2026 is projected at around 3.3 percent, with contributions from major economies including the United States and China. While structural challenges remain, the updated outlook suggests cautious optimism about near-term economic momentum.
Policy and Risk Factors
Although the forecast was upgraded, the IMF cautioned that trade uncertainties, policy shifts, and financial vulnerabilities could affect medium-term prospects. Continued reform efforts and macroeconomic support are seen as key to sustaining China’s growth trajectory.
