IMD Predicts Above-Normal Rainfall for India’s 2025 Monsoon Season
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the country will receive above-normal rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon season. The cumulative rainfall is expected to be around 105% of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm, offering a promising outlook for agriculture and economic stability.
The optimistic forecast is largely attributed to the neutral conditions of both the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which are expected to persist throughout the June-to-September monsoon period. These climatic factors are crucial influencers of India’s monsoon patterns.
Monsoon rains play a critical role in India’s economy, particularly in agriculture, which supports over 42% of the population and contributes more than 18% to the country’s GDP. About 52% of India’s net cultivated land depends directly on monsoon rainfall for irrigation.
While the overall national outlook is positive, the IMD has cautioned that certain regions—especially parts of northwest India, the northeast, and the southern peninsula—may receive below-normal rainfall during the season. Nevertheless, the general trend across central and eastern parts of the country is expected to be favourable.
The forecast has been welcomed by policymakers and the agriculture sector, as it could help improve crop yields, stabilize rural incomes, and keep food inflation in check. Adequate rainfall would also ease pressure on groundwater resources and reduce the need for emergency irrigation measures.
The IMD will release its next detailed forecast in May, which will include region-specific rainfall distribution and onset dates. For now, the above-normal projection provides a crucial boost to planning for the upcoming kharif crop season and offers hope for a stronger rural economy in the coming months.
