El Nino to Intensify and Last Until February 2027
El Niño is expected to intensify further over the coming months and is now almost certain to persist until February 2027, raising the risk of extreme heat, drought and flooding across different parts of the world.
El Niño Expected to Peak in December
The World Meteorological Organization said the current El Niño event is strengthening rapidly and is forecast to peak around December 2026.
Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to rise to record levels during the October to December period.
The Niño 3.4 index, a key measure used to track El Niño, is forecast to average around 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal during the period, potentially making the current event one of the strongest recorded since at least 1950.
El Niño Likely to Last Until February 2027
Forecasts show a near-100% probability that El Niño conditions will continue through February 2027.
The phenomenon typically alters rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide by releasing stored heat from the tropical Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere.
The latest outlook suggests above-average temperatures across large parts of the globe, although local conditions will vary considerably.
India Could Face Drier Conditions
The seasonal outlook indicates a higher likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions across the Indian subcontinent during October to December.
At the same time, wetter conditions are expected in areas including the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of North America and southeastern South America.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to influence rainfall patterns around the Indian Ocean before weakening later in the year.
Weather agencies have urged governments and communities to prepare for increased risks from extreme heat, drought and floods as El Niño strengthens.
