BJP-ADMK Alliance Shakes Up Tamil Nadu Politics Ahead of 2026 Assembly Polls
Though the Tamil Nadu Assembly election is scheduled for next year, political parties have already begun shaping their strategies. As things stand, the DMK appears to have held its alliance intact, largely due to its alignment with the INDIA bloc formed to counter the BJP nationally. Although the BJP remains a minor force in Tamil Nadu, the DMK has used the anti-BJP plank effectively in both state and national politics.
ADMK’s Failed Alliance Plans and Electoral Setback
The AIADMK, which had earlier considered an alliance with the BJP for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, was unable to proceed due to internal frictions—particularly the dominance of former Tamil Nadu BJP chief K. Annamalai. Both parties suffered major losses as a result of contesting separately in the parliamentary polls.
TVK’s Rise and Refusal to Align with ADMK
Looking ahead to the 2026 Assembly elections, AIADMK leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami initially preferred forming an alliance with TVK, the new political outfit floated by actor Vijay. However, according to political strategist Prashant Kishor, TVK is keen to position itself as a serious contender and does not wish to ally with the AIADMK.
BJP Moves Swiftly to Rebuild Ties with ADMK
Sensing the opportunity, the BJP high command moved swiftly to rebuild ties with the AIADMK in an attempt to consolidate anti-DMK votes. Though Edappadi Palaniswami was reportedly reluctant, pressure from within the AIADMK leadership led to a renewed alliance with the BJP. In this sudden political shift, TVK emerges as the immediate loser.
Minority Vote Math and Edappadi’s Calculation
Despite concerns that aligning with the BJP could alienate minority voters, Edappadi’s experience in 2024—where avoiding the BJP didn’t yield minority support—may have factored into his decision. Furthermore, with Annamalai now replaced as state BJP chief, the terms of engagement seem more favorable for Edappadi. Known as a tough negotiator, he is expected to push for a seat-sharing formula that enables the AIADMK to aim for a standalone majority, even if the final outcome results in a coalition government.
Amit Shah’s Strategic Silence on Coalition
Amit Shah, the BJP’s key strategist, is unlikely to complicate the alliance by insisting on a formal coalition structure now. His larger objective is to strengthen the NDA bloc ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. The renewed BJP-AIADMK alliance, therefore, appears to be a strategic win-win.
The Road Ahead: Building a Stronger Anti-DMK Front
However, if the AIADMK truly hopes to challenge the DMK’s unified coalition, it must now work proactively to expand its front with more parties and ensure a strong, cohesive alliance well in advance. That said, Tamil Nadu politics is unpredictable—what seems certain today could change entirely by the time the state goes to the polls.
